“The first casualty of war is the truth.” This is how opened his talk last Thursday at the ABB campus Segelhof in Dättwil. Berni is a military historian and lecturer at ETH Zurich – and very much in demand as an expert on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. And because the truth is even more difficult to discern from afar, he said he’d refrain from making predictions about the outcome of the war.

Liberal democracies versus authoritarian systems
But Berni’s main question as to whether we’re living in a second Cold War between liberal democracies and revisionist, authoritarian systems, was resolved very quickly – by the two main players on the authoritarian side themselves when China’s president Xi Jinping visited Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow on March 22.

Consenec CEO Ingo Fritschi (left) introduces guest speaker Marcel Berni.

Revealing comments
A low-quality, yet nonetheless clear, recording was made of the two men at the conclusion of the meeting. Xi was caught saying, “Together, we should push forward these changes that have not happened for 100 years.” Putin responded, “I agree.” There’s little room for interpretation as to which changes they’re pushing for: the establishment of a new world order that is in opposition to existing structures. Structures that in their eyes are – still – dominated by the United States and its democratic allies.

War as policy
“When Putin decided to attack Ukraine, he believed the West was already weakened,” Berni explained. Putin based his reasoning on events like the Americans’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, the storming of the Capitol in Washington, and the diffuse tensions that arose in democracies during the pandemic. That said, Putin has always understood war to be a policy tool, as evidenced by the war in Chechnya, the and Russia’s in Syria’s civil war.

Unintended consequences
But Putin was greatly mistaken when it came to Ukrainian resistance and the West’s response to the invasion. “It was certainly not in his interest that the Baltic Sea effectively became NATO’s “mare nostrum” with Finland’s recent, and Sweden’s impending, membership in the military alliance,” Berni continued.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Marcel Berni has been in demand as an expert in Swiss media.

The rivalry grows
China’s support, however, as well as backing from less powerful allies like Iran and North Korea – and also the relatively neutral positions of countries such as India, South Africa and Brazil – all play into Putin’s hands. The result is a growing rivalry with the liberal West, whose resolve to support Ukraine is noticeably waning.

Unclear international situation
Berni drew comparisons to the first Cold War as well as to the hot war that broke out between the two blocs in Korea at the time. He also spoke of a possible conflict over Taiwan and potential undertones of the Cuban Missile Crisis. He added that the overall picture isn’t made any rosier by the current conflict in Israel, another flash point with uncertain consequences for the Middle East. A positive development is the fact that US president Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping have at least met recently, with the aim of reducing tensions and opening up channels of communication. The military historian then also pointed out that the global situation is also impacting Switzerland, as seen in the increase in military spending.

No “end of history”
The coming months and years will show which way the geopolitical situation will develop. But an “end of history” that brings about the global triumph of liberalism, with democracy and a market economy prevailing, is much further off than many of us had hoped at the end of the first Cold War.